Reuters Poll Predicts Mid-term Fall of New Government

India’s new government, to be formed after the April/May general elections, will not go the whole hog, as political uncertainties are likely to re-emerge two or three years into the five-year term, says a Reuters poll that consists of opinions of 14 leading analysts.

According to the poll, the main battle of the April 16-May 13 election will be between the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The UPA has been losing ground over the past few weeks amid squabbles with alliance partners and may again require leftist’s backing to come back to power, add analysts.

Notably, the Congress has struggled to put together its alliance, failing to secure agreements for seat-sharing with some key partners in states such as Bihar and Tamil Nadu.

Recently, a group of smaller political parties, including the communists, have formed a “Third Front” in a bid to provide an alternative to the two main national coalitions. The poll suggests that the front has been gaining ground, though it was down 4 points this week as compared to the last week amid coalition problems.

Analysts said that on an average, there was 22 percent chance of Congress-led alliance winning without communist support, up only 1 percent since last week’s poll. There was a 36 percent possibility the Congress would win with communist support, up 3 percent since the previous week.

As far as NDA is concerned, chance of its victory was 21 percent, down from 23 two weeks ago. While, there was a 20 percent possibility of a Third Front government, down 4 points from last week. Counting in the election will begin on May 16.

In poll, Reuters surveyed analysts from a variety of backgrounds, including universities, pollsters and banks, on Monday and Tuesday. The poll does not aim to be scientific but to give readers a snapshot of how some of the leading India analysts are thinking.

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