As the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leads in 341 seats and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) struggles in 95, the saffron party is all set to retain its 2014 bloom for the next five years. The counting of votes for the just-concluded seven-phase Lok Sabha election 2019 for 542 constituencies (voting in Vellore, Tamil Nadu, was cancelled) began at 8 am on Thursday. The voting process started on April 11 and ended on May 19. By Thursday evening, India will most likely know who will be their next leader. But going by the trends since morning, BJP-led NDA is heading for a landslide victory in the Lok Sabha elections 2019 with a spectacular performance. The trends take us back to 2014 when the BJP crossed the 272 mark comfortably on its own, without allies, winning 282 seats, a gain of 166. As results for all 543 Lok Sabha seats were announced, the NDA looked set to win 336 seats. This was the biggest victory since the 1984 election, which was won by Rajiv Gandhi with 414 Lok Sabha seats. The 2014 win was also a historic victory for the BJP as it was also the first time ever in the 67-year history of independent India that a non-Congress party had won a simple majority on its own. BJP’s strongest performance came from Uttar Pradesh, where it won 72 out of 80 seats. This year, the BJP is set to secure 59 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, giving a tough fight to Samajwadi Party (SP)-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) gathbandhan, which claimed that it would secure over 50 seats together in the state. Till 4.25 pm, SP had secured 6 seats and BSP 11. In Raebareli, from where Sonia Gandhi is contesting, Congress has taken the lead with 5,06,229 votes, while in Amethi, which has witnessed a fierce battle between Congress president Rahul Gandhi and BJP’s Smriti Irani, BJP has taken the lead. Congress has secured 1,92,102 votes and is trailing BJP, which has secured 2,11,820 votes. At 6,42,060 votes, BJP has taken the lead in Varanasi, which is PM Narendra Modi’s constituency.
The BJP has also taken an unassailable lead in Hindi heartland states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. As of 4.25 pm, the BJP had secured 28 of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, nine of the 11 in Chhattisgarh and 24 of 25 in Rajasthan. In 2014, BJP’s performance in Chhattisgarh (10 out of 11) and MP (27 out of 29) was also expected. With all 25 seats in its pocket, the BJP whitewashed its rivals in Rajasthan five years back. The other state that saw a shock outcome for the Congress in 2014 was Maharashtra, where the party went down from 17 MPs in 2009 to two MPs. The BJP and Shiv Sena won 41 out of 48 seats in the state. In 2019, the BJP has secured 23 seats, while the Shiv Sena 18, till 4.30 pm. The BJP won all 26 seats in Gujarat in 2014 and going by the trends, the party will repeat its ‘Mission 26’ performance this year too. Similarly, in 2014, the Congress lost all seven MPs to the BJP and this year too, it will most likely be a clean sweep for the BJP in the national capital. In 2014, in Jammu and Kashmir, the ruling NC-Congress coalition faced a complete whitewash, with even Farooq Abdullah and Ghulam Nabi Azad losing. This year though, BJP and NC are at par with three seats each. The BJP is also set to sweep Karnataka where Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) had unseated the saffron party in 2018 assembly elections. The BJP has taken a considerable lead in 22 seats and has already won three, while the Congress has won one seat and the JD (S) is leading on one. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress won the lion’s share of seats, 34 of the state’s 42, in 2014. But this year BJP has given a tough fight to Mamata Banerjee. The TMC is leading in 23 seats, while the BJP leads in 18. In 2014, the saffron party won 28 of 40 seats in Bihar, 12 of 14 in Jharkhand, seven out of 10 in Haryana and 2 of 2 in Goa. This year, the BJP has secured 15 seats in Bihar, 11 in Jharkhand, 10 in Haryana and 1 in Goa till 4.25 pm. In Tamil Nadu, J Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK won 37 of 39 seats, while the BJP got only one. In 2019, the DMK is leading in 23 seats, Congress is leading in 8, CPI(M) in 2 and AIADMK in 1. After the last phase of polling ended on May 19, the exit polls predicted BJP’s landslide victory over Congress.
