Karnataka elections underway, big 3 parties say they will form govt

Brisk voting is underway in Karnataka elections after polling centres opened at 7am to enable people select their representatives for the state’s 224-seat assembly.

The Election Commission said the voter turnout was 21.2% at 11am. Elections were postponed in south Bengaluru’s Jayanagar after the BJP candidate died and in the city’s RR Nagar after thousands of voter identity cards were found in an apartment. Catch the live coverage of Karnataka Elections 2018

IANS reports during the initial hour of voting, there were reports of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) malfunctioning in some booths; power crisis in a polling station in Rajajinagar seat; voters names missing at few booths and women clad in burqa made to reveal their faces at a Belagavi polling booth.

The leaders of the Congress, the Bharaitya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (Secular)—the state’s three leading parties—said they were confident of victory.

For the Congress, Karnataka is the last major state outside Punjab where it is in power. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been taunting it, saying it will become a PPP party (Punjab, Puducherry and Parivar) and that the Karnataka is currently being used as an ATM. For the Congress, a win in Karnataka would be a shot of confidence ahead of upcoming battles in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan later in the year, apart from the big prize of the general elections in 2019. The importance of Karnataka can be gauged by the fact that even United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi has hit the campaign trail after a two-year hiatus.

The BJP is attempting to snatch the last large prize in the Congress’s kitty. After falling out with N Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, it will be hoping that a win in Karnataka will serve as a gateway to its southern ambitions. It will also want to send a message to both opponents and allies who might be sitting on the fence ahead of 2019 that it is still the pre-eminent national party.

The Janata Dal (Secular) led by former prime minister HD Deve Gowda knows it has no real chance of forming a government of its own and is hoping for a hung house, which would allow it to extract its pound of flesh.

Congress leader and chief minister Siddaramaiah’s government has no serious anti-incumbency baggage. There is no large visible wave, either, for or against the government. While Modi has called it a 10% government (implying a cut off everything), Siddaramaiah’s government has managed to get by five years without a major scandal.

However, agrarian distress, controversies over sharing of waters of the Cauvery and Mahadayi, unemployment, poor infrastructure (especially in Bengaluru), lack of health facilities and housing, and Kannada identity remain key issues on the ground. Then there are factors such as caste and religion – never far away from any Indian election.

BJP president Amit Shah took charge of the campaign in the state. BS Yeddyurappa may have rebelled and parted with the BJP in 2013, forming a breakaway party Karnataka Janata Party, but he came back in 2014; he is still the most popular face in the BJP. Yeddyurappa, though, has been unhappy because he hasn’t called all the shots. He has been unable to get even his son Vijayendra and close aides such as Shobha Karandlaje tickets to contest elections. Some of those who have missed out have rebelled.

On Saturday, Yeddyurappa rejected any doubt his chances in the elections and said he will invite Prime Minister Modi to attend his government’s swearing-in ceremony.

Sustaining a regional force in a state with heavy presence of two national parties is not an easy task. However, Deve Gowda and his son and former chief minister H D Kumaraswamy, who both lead the JD (S), have managed to do it, primarily on the fact that Vokkaligas, the second-largest community in the state spread over the Old Mysuru region, have largely been loyal backers of the party.

Having been out of power for a decade, JD (S) has been constrained in terms of resources but still packs enough punch to win about 10-20% of seats in the state. The best case scenario for the party is where both Congress and BJP lack a majority and are dependent on it to make numbers. If it crosses 50 seats, it will demand the CM’s chair or at least the chair by rotation, an arrangement it had with the BJP earlier.

Opinion polls have margins of error and have notoriously gone wrong in the past. But of the eight polls done by well-known agencies till now, four indicate a hung house, three indicate Congress having a majority and only one gives the BJP a majority of its own. Whether this will change based on Modi’s last-week blitz will be revealed on May 15. History is against Siddaramaiah though. The last time a state government was re-elected was in 1985.